Tag Archives: Five state presidential primary August 26 2016

Analysis: Five State Primary Day Sweep for Trump; Four States for Clinton

Cruz Announces VP Pick Businesswoman Carly Fiorina and Looks West for Wins

Written by Juliana Simone

Donald Trump, Republican Candidate for President of the United States in CT 2016
Donald Trump, Republican Candidate for President of the United States in CT 2016

Winning projections for both frontrunners, Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton were validated on Tuesday, April 26th, with Trump winning all five states up for grabs, and Clinton winning four out of five states with final totals reported over their opponents.

It was clear before 1AM the numbers for Rhode Island still seemed too close to call. News the next day showed with the final count, Vermont U.S. Senator Sanders beat the 2008 democrat presidential candidate Clinton in Rhode Island, 55% to 43.3%. As a result, the former Arkansas and U.S. First Lady did not have the same five state sweep Republican opponent Trump achieved, nor were her numbers as good as the ones Trump won overall.

Too early to project except for the temptation of the sensational news headline, the media reported Tuesday evening Hillary had a huge night and easily won all five states in this late April primary in the northeast. Mrs. Clinton, naturally, quick to embrace the moment in a campaign that has surprised supporters how difficult it has been for her to compete with U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders, happily chose this moment in the sun to pan to voters and the cameras that she is a popular candidate, despite the unexpected success of her challenger.

In terms of the Rhode Island results, a difference of 12% is considerable, and it should make voters wary of what the agenda driven mainstream media reports. Numbers like that are way too large to call for any election. Messaging must have prioritized the iffy statistics that those who chose to call Rhode Island for the former Secretary of State, believed would go their way, and rushed to embellish Clinton’s win as equal to those of Trump’s.

What’s clear to those who have followed this race from the beginning, is she is not a popular candidate, and polls continue to show she has a high percentage rate as someone who is not likable. According to polls, for whatever they’re worth, Republican opponent Trump has the same. The difference is in the numbers.

Holding true to the pattern that began early on with the beginning of state primaries, the turnout for Trump and the Republican Party far exceeds the turnout for Clinton and the Democrat Party.

The Republican Party is seeing a record high turnout on primary days and in terms of people registering to the party to be able to vote for their preferred candidate in these primaries. Most of the unaffiliated and moderate democrats are making this switch to vote for Trump in states whose election laws do not allow open voting where any registered party member can vote for whomever they choose on the ballot.

The Democrat Party has seen its voters very unenthusiastic about getting to vote for either of their two candidates. Records show four million less democrats have cared to cast a ballot this election year in their primaries. The only candidate motivating any new group in droves who often don’t care to vote, is Sanders with the millennial group made up of young adults between twenty and thirty.

Statistics and analysis show the Trump campaign even outperformed the estimates polls provided going into this latest Super Tuesday.  What the mainstream media chose not to emphasize was that Donald Trump, not only won all five states in the Tuesday primary, but he won every county of all five states. Neither of his Republican opponents were able to win one county in this primary. Clinton could not say she also won every country of the four states she was declared the winner.

How the five candidates performed on the 26th:

Connecticut: Trump @ 57.86% (votes cast: 123,367) to Kasich @ 28.37% (votes cast: 60,481) and Cruz @ 11.71% (votes cast: 24,969); Clinton @ 51.8% (votes cast: 170,075) to Sanders @ 46.42% (votes cast: 152,410). Trump took all 28 delegates; Clinton took 28 delegates to Sanders 27.

Delaware: Trump @ 60.8% (votes cast: 42,472) to Kasich @ 20.4% (votes cast: 14, 225) and Cruz @ 15.9% (votes cast: 11,110); Clinton @ 59.8% (votes cast: 55,950) to Sanders @ 39.2% (votes cast: 36,659). Trump took all 16 delegates; Clinton took 12 delegates to Sanders 9.

Maryland: Trump @ 54.4% (votes cast: 236, 623) to Kasich @ 23.0% (votes cast: 100, 089) and Cruz @ 18.9% (votes cast: 82,038); Clinton @ 63.0% (votes cast: 533,247) to Sanders @ 33.2% (votes cast: 281,275). Trump took all 38 delegates; Clinton took 61 delegates to Sanders 33.

Pennsylvania: Trump @ 56.7% (votes cast: 892,702) to Cruz @ 21.6% (votes cast: 340,20) and Kasich @ 19.4% (votes cast: 304,793); Clinton @ 55.6% (votes cast: 918, 689) to Sanders @ 43.6% (votes cast: 719, 955). Trump won all 17 delegates; Clinton took 105 delegates to Sanders 83.

Rhode Island – Trump @ 63.8% (votes cast: 39,059) to Kasich @ 24.4% (votes cast: 14, 929) and Cruz @10.4% (votes cast: 6,393); Sanders @ 55% (votes cast: 66, 720) to Clinton @ 43.3% (votes cast: 52, 493). Trump took 12 delegates, Kasich 5 and Cruz 2; Sanders took 13 delegates to Clinton’s 11.

Connecticut was the state most analysts and polls believed could go to Sanders. He was well in the lead through much of the day, then a slim lead through the evening, but final tallies pushed Clinton over the edge to win. Connecticut has a history of funny math on ballot mishaps on Election Days, so it’s tough to say if Sanders didn’t actually win this state.

Sanders, who wanted to speak at UCONN, on one of his campaign speeches, couldn’t meet their terms and had to go the New Haven green and Hartford the next morning. It is of note that UCONN presented an award to former President Bill Clinton for human rights in October, and the UCONN Foundation paid Hillary Clinton $251,250. As a resident, I see Sanders lawn signs and bumper stickers on cars a lot and have yet to see anything for Clinton.

Trumps biggest wins were in Rhode Island and Delaware in the low sixties percentage wise. The other three states he still performed well in, with two in the high fifty percentiles and Maryland, his lowest at still just under 55%. Clinton has one state that gave her a return in the low sixties – Maryland. Delaware had her second best returns at almost sixty percent, and her two wins put her in the low to mid-fifties. Rhode Island, which she lost put her in the low forties.

Sanders highest percentage was his winning state, Rhode Island, of course, at 55%. Kasich’s highest return was in Connecticut, known for its large group of moderate Republicans, at 28%, and Cruz’s best state was Delaware at just under 16%.

Of all the candidates the winner of who won their home state by the largest percentage goes to Bernie Sanders, where the Vermont U.S. Senator won by a whopping 86.1%, faring much better than fellow colleagues in the Senate, Cruz and Marco Rubio, who failed to win over challenger Donald Trump, who considers Florida to be his second home. Trump won his home state of New York with a respectable 60.4%, Cruz won Texas with 43.8%, and Kasich won Ohio as sitting Governor, with 46.8%.

It’s tough to say what Hillary Clinton’s home state is and she claims a few to hold that distinction. Born and raised in Illinois, she attended Wellesley College in Massachusetts and Yale Law School in Connecticut. She met her future husband on this Ivy League campus, the 42nd President of the United States, William J. Clinton, who proposed marriage, but a staff opportunity in Washington D.C. that made her future there a bright one, was her preference at this given time.

But failing to pass the District of Columbia bar exam to become an attorney there, she took the bar in Arkansas where her boyfriend Bill Clinton was returning. Passing that exam, she agreed to marry Clinton, where they lived and worked for almost twenty years.

Winning the White House in 1992, put Mrs. Clinton in Washington, D.C. for eight years. When her husband’s two terms ended, she did not want her spot in the political limelight to end, so she cherry picked New York as her choice to run for the U.S. Senate. Plunking down money on a 1.7 million dollar home in Chappaqua, to qualify her for the run as a resident, she eventually won over the New Yorker’s who recognized her as a carpetbagger, with the general consensus that maybe more state money would come to them with someone as powerful as a former First Lady as their U.S. Senator.

Though New York is actually listed as her home residence, she has spent little time in that home since its purchase in 1999. Its former President Bill Clinton who has lived in the house since the Clinton’s bought into the Empire State. Once Hillary won her Senate seat through New Yorker’s votes, the Clinton’s purchased a home for 2.85 million in what is known as the upscale area of northwest Washington as “Observatory Circle.” The brick colonial is located on a dead end street.

Whichever home she designates at the moment, in Illinois she won with 50.5% of the vote, just slightly over opponent Sanders who came in with 48.7%. In Arkansas, the home of her husband who was the Governor there and a former President, she faired the best at 66.3%. In New York, the blue state she’s spent a fraction of the time, she won with 58%. In Massachusetts, where she attended college, she just beat Sanders 50.1% to 48.7%.

In caucuses, Cruz won in Wyoming with his highest percentage achieved at 66.3% with 644 votes cast, while Trump in this state caucus gave Trump his lowest figure to date at 7.2%. Idaho went to Cruz with 45.4% to Trump’s 28.1%. Trump did not visit Idaho unlike Cruz. Idaho also chose Sanders over Clinton by a large margin: 78% Sanders to 21.2% Clinton. In Alaska, both Cruz and Sanders one. Cruz, by almost three points, but Sanders ran away with it beating Hillary 81.6% to 18.4%.

On a larger scale in terms of the numbers, as noted in an earlier post, Trump has already received 2.1 million more votes before this five state primary, than Republican Presidential nominee Mitt Romney in 2012. This is an amazing figure.

On the Democrat Party side, the party has seen four million less people care to cast a vote in the primary process. Whether Democrats don’t care for either choice enough to go vote, or will just pull the lever for whoever becomes the nominee, remains to be seen. People can only wonder what the turnout would be with Clinton on this second try versus any other opponent than Vermont U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders, in challenging her.

The candidate who has ignited the Democrat Party, as Trump has lit up not only Republican Party supporters, but democrats and unaffiliated, is Sanders. Sanders is the politician who has brought out masses of followers to his rallies, has won ten states over the media’s anointed Clinton the Party did not believe perceivable, as well as  nearly tying her in states like Missouri.

He’s received more private grassroots donations, has kept Clinton’s winning margins in many primaries and caucuses far from solid leads, and could arguably be the frontrunner if not for the Democrat Party’s super-delegate system. Professionals and voters have speculated over whether or not Sanders knew Clinton had all these super-delegates in the bag, before he even began his campaign. Did he know he would never have the opportunity to become the party nominee, no matter how popular his campaign became? Certainly his voters did not.

An interesting local news highlight here in New England, reported on Tuesday’s five state primary, which illustrated how popular Sanders is among his party’s voters and devotees, on a small but impressive note for those of who know the area, ” Democrat turnout was so high on Block Island that a ferry had to ship extra Democratic ballots to the remote community Tuesday evening.”

For those not familiar with this region, Block Island is part of Rhode Island – an island off of the shore of Rhode Island which is a local tourist attraction for both sailors and visitors who take the ferry there and stay in hotels as a summer getaway destination.

Despite his large following, mostly with the youth vote, as pointed out earlier, this is not his sole demographic. A pronounced Socialist, Sanders appeals to disenfranchised Americans, big government fans and most likely Democrats who don’t care for Hillary, or maybe even both Clinton’s.

Still, with the northeast four state sweep on Tuesday, Sanders said Wednesday with last night’s returns, he would now be laying off hundreds of staff employees around the country and focus on California, which he considers to be a state he can win. He explained in regards to the campaign layoffs, that in states whose primaries already have passed, he did not need staff their anymore and needed to focus on the remaining 14 states whose delegates and voters were still important going forward.  The Vermont U.S. Senator also said he will remain in the race until the convention.

Trump, has his own possible battle awaiting him in Ohio at the Republican National Convention with many party candidates, leadership and advisers not hiding the fact they are doing everything they can to keep him from becoming the nominee. Whether it’s Cruz and Kasich with their news announcement this week on teaming up to not campaign or advertise in states that favored either over the other, to keep more delegates from Trump acquiring the 1,237 needed to not go to a second ballot at the convention, when bound delegates can then vote for whomever they choose, or if its reputable long-serving Republican’s whether elected into office or not, saying they’ll vote for Hillary before Donald, Trump and his millions of supporters have to prepare themselves for a showdown on in July.

If Trump continues to win the remaining primaries, and falls just short of the total delegates needed only to have the national convention delegates award the nomination to someone else, leaves supporters wondering if Trump should run as an independent. On the democrat side, Sanders is wondering this, too, with his large following and earned primary and caucus wins, why should he bow out because the party already had given the nomination to Hillary through their super-delegates despite his hard work and positive response?

Trump, a businessman who’s made billions of dollars in real estate investments and other ventures, is the only self-funded candidate out of the remaining five, and also out of the original seventeen Republicans. This is something conservatives in the Republican Party usually laud, as it means the candidate won’t be prone to backroom deals and secret handshakes with lobbyists, special interest groups and politicians across the aisle, since no money had to exchange hands between them in the form or campaign contributions or PAC money.

This advantage Trump has and also gives voters, now is hardly ever mentioned in the media and the Republican Party seems mute on this positive. The argument stands that this is because the insiders in D.C. want everyone to have the same strings tied to them as are tied to everyone else there. A man with no strings is free and clear and does not need to respond on demand. Clearly a dangerous concept to the establishment.

Carly Fiorina with Texas U.S. Senator Ted Cruz as she becomes Cruz's running mate as VP if he gets the nomination
Carly Fiorina with Texas U.S. Senator Ted Cruz as she becomes Cruz’s running mate as VP if he gets the nomination

An interesting turning point that followed Tuesday’s results, was Texas U.S. Senator Ted Cruz, exiting the northeast and leaving his losses behind to announce he had picked his running mate for Vice President, if he can somehow achieve the nomination at this time. He chose the only female Republican who sought the nomination for President of the United States in 2016, former business executive Carly Fiorina.

A good choice in that it brings a female on to his ticket for those voting for Hillary simply on gender alone. She is not a party insider, as Cruz wrestles with the constant argument between those who claim he himself is one as an elected Senator, and those who maintain he is anything but, as someone who’s always bucked the system and stood alone on some important issues his colleagues would not join him on.

She also must have appealed to Cruz as she was born in Texas to a father who was an attorney, law professor, deputy U.S. attorney general and judge on the U.S. Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals.

In the debates, one prime time and the others in the pre-prime time broadcasts for lower polling candidates, she made it clear she was very sharp on policy and could run circles around Hillary if they’d ever have the opportunity to debate. This, of course, is the reason the media never gave her much airtime. Yes, they want a woman to become President, but, no, not a Republican one.

Pundits saw both negatives and positives in his decision. Negatives cited were her inability to win a primary or caucus and poll numbers that kept her off the prime time debate stage except for once.  Positives were her college and business connections to California and again, the fact she is a female.

Personally, for those who listened to the debates, one has to wonder if her accepting the invitation to be Cruz’s running mate was because as she stressed in every opening or closing statement, she’d been told no her whole life, and she found a way to get what she wanted anyway. Perhaps this is her drive in that she’s turned a public and party no into a yes.

Additionally, it gives her more on-camera time to say negative things about Donald Trump. The two had their moments on national television during the debates, and it’s clear there is no love between the two of them. If her coming back into the spotlight means she’ll be spending her time criticizing Trump with snarky remarks, (she’s already said “Trump will be a disaster for this nation” if elected) instead of being at her best and highlighting Clinton’s many weaknesses and troubles, then perhaps she should have passed on a possible run with Cruz.

The etiquette of Reagan’s eleventh commandment is perhaps now off the table as her own election is at hand along with Senator Cruz. So for now, the campaign speech will be its Trump who is the projected disaster, not Clinton. For his part on Cruz teaming up with Fiorina, Trump has said the Cruz-Fiorina announcement was a waste of time.

Polls in Indiana, which is holding its primary this Tuesday, May 3rd, show an uptick for the Texas Senator since announcing Fiorina as his VP choice. With what little polling has been done, there, however, polls currently show Trump still leads by around 5%.

Total delegate counts going into this Tuesday stand with Trump at just under one thousand at 996; Cruz with 565 and Kasich with 153. Florida U.S. Senator, Marco Rubio, who suspended his campaign after his loss in Florida to Trump, with 164 still holds more delegates than Kasich, but with Kasich staying in until the end, despite only winning his state of Ohio, should pick up enough by the end of the primaries to exceed Rubio. Unbound delegates for Rubio, most after the first ballot will be up for grabs.

With the primaries coming to a close, ten remaining states for the Republican candidates, including California, will have the final say if Donald Trump can go to the Ohio convention with the needed delegate count to become the nominee with no second, or possibly more, ballots, and the potential to become the 45th President of the United States.

Five State Primary Today: What Will the Results Reveal Voters vs. Establishment?

 

 

(l-r) Texas U.S. Senator Ted Cruz, Ohio Governor John Kasich, Businessman Donald Trump {photo: dispatch.com}
(l-r) Texas U.S. Senator Ted Cruz, Ohio Governor John Kasich, Businessman Donald Trump {photo: dispatch.com}

Written by Juliana Simone

April 26, 2016

With the recent news story that highlighted a new pact between Texas U.S. Senator Ted Cruz and Ohio Governor John Kasich, where they will work together in the forthcoming weeks to alter the outcomes of delegate votes for frontrunner New York businessman Donald Trump, it appears that the Republican Party’s establishment, still hopes to stop Trump from becoming the 2016 nominee for President of the United States under any circumstances.

Five states are holding presidential primaries today: Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland, Delaware and Pennsylvania. There are still 733 delegates up for grab out of the 1,237 total needed at the national convention by a candidate to secure the nomination and not have the vote go to a second ballot. For those who have read my previous posts, as I’ve mentioned before, many tricky things happen once it goes to a second ballot, or more if necessary.

Trump is showing high polling numbers in all of the five states voting today and is expected to win them. In our state of Connecticut, polls have Trump winning at 40% with Cruz just over 20% and Kasich in the high teens. With that in mind, Cruz and Kasich apparently have decided to move forward to upcoming primary states like Indiana, who along with Tennessee, have their primary on May 3rd.

The pact between Senator Cruz and Governor Kasich has the two contenders agreeing to not challenge each other in a state where one clearly has higher expected returns. Strategically, this means they each will be more likely to win the state, or at least many of the state’s delegates over Trump.

Kasich, still the candidate who has only won one state, his own, and is perceived by many as someone who should have suspended his campaign months ago, continues to enjoy his time in the spotlight, and remains ambitious in his campaigning. Proof of this was his remarks yesterday that he still hoped to win Indiana, even though he’d just agreed with Cruz he would not campaign in this state to give the edge to Cruz and thus help to eliminate Trump. Cruz, in turn, would not campaign heavily in New Mexico and Oregon to give an edge to Kasich.

But, Kasich, quickly showed the true nature of politics, when hours later from the announcement of their agreement, he said at an appearance in Philadelphia Monday, “Indiana voters should vote for me.” Yes, he did withdraw his public appearances to stay true to the pact with Cruz, but he still plans on meeting with Indiana Republicans, including their Governor, and attending a fundraising event there.  In return, Cruz’s campaign said they would never tell any voter who to vote for and told supporters they did not endorse tactical voting.

Upon hearing this news, frontrunner Trump addressed this pact from an appearance in Warwick, Rhode Island, calling it conclusion, and saying in business or the stock market, if you collude, you’d be put in jail, but in politics, because it’s a rigged system, a corrupt enterprise, in politics you’re allowed to collude. He said he was happy with this news, in that it showed how weak and pathetic the two were, as they are just getting killed…it shows complete weakness…two long time establishment guys now had to get together to try and beat the guy that speaks what the people want.

Of note, heading into this late April five state primary, Donald Trump now has had 2.1 million more votes cast for him than Republican Presidential candidate Mitt Romney in 2012. As the projected winner over Ted Cruz and John Kasich by sizeable percentages, Trump’s count will continue to grow this evening when final tallies are posted.

Texas U.S. Senator Ted Cruz has acknowledged Trump will win the five states today, but believes once the primaries head back towards the western states, results will change and not favor Trump. After May 3rd, the states of Nebraska and West Virginia have primaries on May 10th; Kentucky, Oregon and Washington hold their primaries on May 17th; big-prize state California, along with Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota primary on June 7th, and lastly Washington D.C. (democrat party only) on June 14th.

The discussion that remains as the main talking point, is whether or not Donald Trump can achieve the total of 1,237 delegates needed at the national convention in Ohio to become the nominee without heading into the second ballot. At this time, he is the only Republican candidate remaining of the three that has the potential to achieve this feat. Whether or not the Republican establishment hopes to derail this effort remains to be seen.