Five State Primary Today: What Will the Results Reveal Voters vs. Establishment?

 

 

(l-r) Texas U.S. Senator Ted Cruz, Ohio Governor John Kasich, Businessman Donald Trump {photo: dispatch.com}
(l-r) Texas U.S. Senator Ted Cruz, Ohio Governor John Kasich, Businessman Donald Trump {photo: dispatch.com}

Written by Juliana Simone

April 26, 2016

With the recent news story that highlighted a new pact between Texas U.S. Senator Ted Cruz and Ohio Governor John Kasich, where they will work together in the forthcoming weeks to alter the outcomes of delegate votes for frontrunner New York businessman Donald Trump, it appears that the Republican Party’s establishment, still hopes to stop Trump from becoming the 2016 nominee for President of the United States under any circumstances.

Five states are holding presidential primaries today: Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland, Delaware and Pennsylvania. There are still 733 delegates up for grab out of the 1,237 total needed at the national convention by a candidate to secure the nomination and not have the vote go to a second ballot. For those who have read my previous posts, as I’ve mentioned before, many tricky things happen once it goes to a second ballot, or more if necessary.

Trump is showing high polling numbers in all of the five states voting today and is expected to win them. In our state of Connecticut, polls have Trump winning at 40% with Cruz just over 20% and Kasich in the high teens. With that in mind, Cruz and Kasich apparently have decided to move forward to upcoming primary states like Indiana, who along with Tennessee, have their primary on May 3rd.

The pact between Senator Cruz and Governor Kasich has the two contenders agreeing to not challenge each other in a state where one clearly has higher expected returns. Strategically, this means they each will be more likely to win the state, or at least many of the state’s delegates over Trump.

Kasich, still the candidate who has only won one state, his own, and is perceived by many as someone who should have suspended his campaign months ago, continues to enjoy his time in the spotlight, and remains ambitious in his campaigning. Proof of this was his remarks yesterday that he still hoped to win Indiana, even though he’d just agreed with Cruz he would not campaign in this state to give the edge to Cruz and thus help to eliminate Trump. Cruz, in turn, would not campaign heavily in New Mexico and Oregon to give an edge to Kasich.

But, Kasich, quickly showed the true nature of politics, when hours later from the announcement of their agreement, he said at an appearance in Philadelphia Monday, “Indiana voters should vote for me.” Yes, he did withdraw his public appearances to stay true to the pact with Cruz, but he still plans on meeting with Indiana Republicans, including their Governor, and attending a fundraising event there.  In return, Cruz’s campaign said they would never tell any voter who to vote for and told supporters they did not endorse tactical voting.

Upon hearing this news, frontrunner Trump addressed this pact from an appearance in Warwick, Rhode Island, calling it conclusion, and saying in business or the stock market, if you collude, you’d be put in jail, but in politics, because it’s a rigged system, a corrupt enterprise, in politics you’re allowed to collude. He said he was happy with this news, in that it showed how weak and pathetic the two were, as they are just getting killed…it shows complete weakness…two long time establishment guys now had to get together to try and beat the guy that speaks what the people want.

Of note, heading into this late April five state primary, Donald Trump now has had 2.1 million more votes cast for him than Republican Presidential candidate Mitt Romney in 2012. As the projected winner over Ted Cruz and John Kasich by sizeable percentages, Trump’s count will continue to grow this evening when final tallies are posted.

Texas U.S. Senator Ted Cruz has acknowledged Trump will win the five states today, but believes once the primaries head back towards the western states, results will change and not favor Trump. After May 3rd, the states of Nebraska and West Virginia have primaries on May 10th; Kentucky, Oregon and Washington hold their primaries on May 17th; big-prize state California, along with Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota primary on June 7th, and lastly Washington D.C. (democrat party only) on June 14th.

The discussion that remains as the main talking point, is whether or not Donald Trump can achieve the total of 1,237 delegates needed at the national convention in Ohio to become the nominee without heading into the second ballot. At this time, he is the only Republican candidate remaining of the three that has the potential to achieve this feat. Whether or not the Republican establishment hopes to derail this effort remains to be seen.

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